Eight years ago, on 25 August 2017, a campaign of genocide and crimes against humanity in Myanmar's Rakhine State forced hundreds of thousands of Rohingya to flee across the border into Bangladesh.
In a remarkable act of humanity, Bangladesh opened its arms. Yet, eight years later, there has been no meaningful progress towards their safe return.
Instead, the crisis has deepened and taken on multiple new dimensions. Researchers and international organisations agree that dwindling international aid, a severe lack of security within the camps, worsening relations with the host community, and a transformed political and military situation in Rakhine State have made the hope of repatriation seem almost impossible.
With not a single Rohingya formally sent back in all this time, the crisis is trapped in a complex cycle where new challenges constantly emerge instead of solutions.
Crisis of identity with far-reaching effects
From the very beginning, the Bangladesh government has strategically avoided officially recognising the Rohingya as "refugees". Instead, they are termed "Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals" (FDMNs).
The intention was to signal that their stay was temporary and that their return to Myanmar was the only acceptable long-term outcome.
While the goal was to keep international focus on repatriation, a major consequence of this policy is that the Rohingya are deprived of certain rights and protections guaranteed to refugees under international law.
Though organisations like the UN, researchers, and NGOs refer to them as refugees, this official ambiguity has left them in a legal limbo, making their struggle for rights more difficult.
The blocked path home: New reality in Rakhine
Despite numerous attempts at negotiation over the past eight years, the repatriation process is completely stalled.
The main reason is Myanmar's lack of political will to guarantee the safety and citizenship that the Rohingya demand for a voluntary, safe, and dignified return.
The situation has become far more complex because of the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. As reported by news media and organisations like the International Crisis Group, the Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic Rakhine armed group, has seized control of most of Rakhine State, including the entire border region with Bangladesh.
This creates a major diplomatic problem for Bangladesh: who should they negotiate with for repatriation? The Myanmar military junta, which has lost control of the area, or the Arakan Army, a non-state actor with unclear political goals?
Making matters worse, the Rohingya are now caught between two hostile forces. Human Rights Watch has documented serious abuses against Rohingya civilians by the Arakan Army, including killings, widespread arson, and forced labour, which are disturbingly similar to the tactics used by the Myanmar military.
With credible reports of atrocities being committed by both sides, a safe return for refugees is currently impossible.
New crises born from the stalemate
The eight-year deadlock has created a series of new, interconnected crises that make the situation even more desperate:
A severe funding shortfall
Global attention has shifted to conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and elsewhere. As a result, international humanitarian funding for the Rohingya has dropped dramatically. This has had a devastating impact on basic services.
In March 2025, the World Food Programme was forced to slash monthly food vouchers. The UN reported that the funding crisis threatens to collapse health services and stop food assistance entirely.
This is not a hypothetical situation; the UN has warned that without urgent new funding, health services for over a million refugees face collapse.
Insecurity and violence in the camps
The sprawling camps have become breeding grounds for armed groups. The International Crisis Group reported that these groups are involved in turf wars, drug and weapons trafficking, and are responsible for frequent kidnappings, killings, and extortion. This violence threatens not just the refugees but also the local Bangladeshi community.
Organisations like the International Crisis Group have highlighted in their reports the rise of Rohingya armed groups based in the camps. They alleged that the Bangladeshi military is helping these groups organise against the Arakan Army. However, Bangladesh has strongly denied these allegations.
That said, whether or not Bangladesh is actually supporting these armed groups, it appears unlikely that they will be able to withstand the powerful Arakan Army in battle.
According to anthropologist and researcher Bulbul Ashraf Siddiqi, such allegations against the Bangladeshi government are further diminishing hopes for Rohingya repatriation. He also believes that in this situation, the Arakan Army may accuse Bangladesh of duplicity.
A generation without identity
In the past eight years, hundreds of thousands of children have been born in the camps. They are growing up stateless, without citizenship in any country.
Bangladesh prohibits Rohingya children from enrolling in local schools or receiving formal, accredited education.
As funding has dried up, thousands of informal learning centres in the camps have also been forced to close, leaving a generation of children with no path to a meaningful future.
Growing tensions with the host community
At the beginning of the Rohingya crisis in 2017, the local population in Cox's Bazar showed an unprecedented level of sympathy toward the Rohingya people. Despite their own limited resources, they extended a helping hand. But over time, that sympathy has gradually turned into anxiety and suppressed resentment.
Bulbul Ashraf Siddiqui said several factors lie behind this shift, as he explained in a conversation with Stream:
- Economic and social impact: The prolonged presence of a massive number of Rohingya refugees has put severe pressure on the local labour market. Since the Rohingya are willing to work for much lower wages, local workers are losing jobs. By stepping out of the camps and working in sectors such as agriculture and construction at reduced pay, they have fuelled growing resentment among locals.
- Strain on resources and environmental degradation: As the camps were built directly adjacent to local villages, the social distance between the two populations has broken down. Land that was once communal or forested and integral to the locals' way of life is now beyond their reach. The deforestation caused by camp construction has severely disrupted the region's environmental balance.
- Strained relations: This sense of lost resources and economic competition has worsened relations between the two communities. As a result, NGOs are now compelled to initiate "cohesion" or integration projects to restore harmony between them, which is a testament to the deepening nature of the crisis.
The geopolitics of inaction
The role of international and regional powers in resolving international crises like the Rohingya issue has been disappointing. There is a sense that the international community prioritises its own interests over those of the Rohingya people.
The Myanmar junta government is significantly influenced by China. Yet, according to Bulbul Ashraf Siddiqui, China has shown little interest in resolving the Rohingya crisis.
He argues that China's long-standing policy of "non-interference in another country's internal affairs", along with its massive investments in Myanmar and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has prevented Beijing from playing a stronger role in this issue.
Similarly, he points out that India's economic interests, such as the Kaladan project, and its own security concerns have compelled New Delhi to remain lenient toward Myanmar.
He sees the inaction of these two powerful neighbours as a major obstacle to resolving the crisis.
As for the regional bloc ASEAN, its role has also been extremely weak and passive. Recently, an ASEAN delegation led by Malaysia announced plans to travel to Myanmar for peace talks, but questions remain as to whether such efforts can have any real impact given Myanmar's current political situation.
An uncertain future?
After eight years, the Rohingya crisis is further from a solution than ever. The path to repatriation is blocked, while life in the camps becomes more dangerous and deprived.
Some analysts suggest that Bangladesh could try to build trust with the Arakan Army by using existing cross-border trade links, which might create an opportunity to negotiate.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh's interim government has launched a new diplomatic effort to bring global attention back to the crisis, organising international conferences and raising the issue at the UN.
These efforts may not bring a quick fix, but they are vital steps to revive a stalled conversation. If international pressure can be renewed and the funding crisis addressed, it may be possible to provide a basic level of humane existence for these persecuted people.
But the fundamental question remains: will the Rohingya ever return home with dignity, or is Bangladesh set to become their permanent home?
Comments