Morning brief: Mixed bag for interim government

There was good news and bad news for the interim government on Monday. On the one hand, some parties and student leaders expressed discontent over the content of the July Declaration, while on the other a survey indcated that its announcement of election next February may have been in the nick of time. 

Rumblings continue over July Declaration

Five political parties and interest groups on Monday labelled the July Declaration as incomplete and not in line with public opinion. The same day, 60 student leaders involved in last year's July Uprising rejected it as well, calling it a farce designed to mislead people.

Why it matters

• A major agenda of the interim government has been to push for reforms and create consensus among political parties heading into the next national election.
• The July Declaration is a document recognising the July Uprising, which ousted the authoritarian Awami League regime on 5 August 2024.
• When Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus read the July Declaration out to the public on 5 August, it was also meant to uphold the aspirations of an entire nation and political landscape emerging from 15 years of rule by a single party.
• In a country with a history of tumult surrounding elections and with the 13th parliamentary election just half a year away, how stakeholders, not least the interim government, maintain the uneasy peace will be crucial. 

Zoom in

• Leaders of Hefazat-e-Islam, BDR Kalyan Parishad, Bangladesh Gothontantrik Andolon, the 2018 Quota Reform Movement, and 2018 Road Safety Movement said the Declaration had failed to mention five of the most important chapters in the country's history.
• Five important chapters 'omitted': The Partition of 1947, the BDR massacre of 2009 and the 2013 Shapla Chattar massacre, the oppression of the quota reform movement  in 2018, and the police- and Chhatra League-led repression of teenage protesters during the Road Safety Movement the same year.
• Speakers at the programme, held at the National Press CLub, alleged that although the declaration commemorates past struggles and martyrs, these five important historical chapters have been deliberately omitted. 
• Around the same time, 60 student leaders, calling the Declaration a "farce", called on students, farmers, workers and professionals regardless of caste or creed to  play an active role in formulating a new declaration.

Big picture

• A declaration that was supposed to embody unity, the spirit of the July Uprising, has instead alienated large segments of society. As a result, pressure has been building on the interim government.
• Various parties have voiced their concerns regarding the Declaration, ranging from a conspicuous lack of a legal basis for the document to contentious turns of phrases and words.
• Shortly after the declaration was made, the National Citizen Party (NCP) expressed dissatisfaction, saying it reflected the wants of the BNP.
• Similarly, Jamaat-e-Islami also demanded immediate revisions, alleging that the declaration reflects "the vision of a specific political party" rather than broad national consensus.
• Civil society has also chimed in, with former Jahangirnagar University professor Anu Muhammad saying on 10 August, "History has been distorted in the July Declaration, which demonstrates the interim government's lack of transparency, self-contradiction, and disregard for public opinion."
• As the National Consensus Commission on Sunday began to seek ways to ensure that the Declaration would be legally binding, including implementing the charter through a referendum, these rumblings of discontent have only served to ramp up the ante.

Election announcement in the nick of time?

A Pulse Survey, jointly conducted by BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) and Voice for Reform and unveiled on Monday, indicated that the interim government announced the election at the nick of time.

Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus said on 5 August that the national polls would be held in February 2026, 18 months after a mass uprising culminated in the ouster of the Awami League government in August 2024. 

There was further good news from the survey, conducted on 5,489 individuals from 1 July to 20 July this year, as 70% of respondents said they believed the election would be a fair one.

Why it matters

• After 15 years of rule by a single party, the Awami League, and three elections (2014, 2018, and 2024) that were rife with irregularities, public confidence in the election is a welcome sign.
• The interim government is an unelected government and it had taken office on 8 August last year without a stated time limit, so there was always going to be a sell-by date on its tenure, which brings us to…

What makes polls announcement great timing? Zoom in

• According to the survey, the average marks out of 100 given to the interim government was 63. It may look good for an unelected government, but the confidence in performance has been gradually declining. 
• The number was 75 last August, and 68 in October. 
• The fact that 70% believed that the 2026 polls would be free and fair, and just 15% disagreed, indicates the excitement among the general public to exercise their franchise. After all, the widespread perception is that the public's vote has not counted for nearly 17 years, with a democratic regime change last occurring when the Awami League was voted into power in 2008. 

Big picture (shifting concerns)

• Other aspects of the survey showed that while the interim government had succeeded in some aspects such as curbing inflation, its limitations were exposed by growing concern with the law and order situation,
• Although inflation was the major issue of concern for respondents eight months ago, their chief concerns now centre around law and order, political unrest, election and reforms, Salina added.
• The most pressing issue concerned reforms related to law and order, with almost 57% identifying it as a concern. The second most-discussed issue was linked to the election and politics, accounting for almost 38%.
• In June this year, inflation fell to its lowest point, 8.48%, since March 2023. 
• On the other hand, murder, abduction, robbery, burglary, and theft have all seen a spike across the country in January this year compared to the corresponding month over the last five years.

What they said

• "For the first time, it has been seen that while people believe the political situation is worsening, they are endorsing that the economic situation is still comprehensively better. It might be because prices at kitchen markets are at tolerable levels for the masses." – Dr Asif Shahan, professor of development studies, Dhaka University, and senior fellow, BIGD.