Highlights:
- Confidence in the interim government's performance was rated 63 on average in January, down from 75 in August 2024.
- Some 70% believe the upcoming election, slated for February, will be free and fair. Around 15% believe otherwise.
- The decline in law and order has replaced inflation as the biggest concern.
- Around 51% want the election after effective reforms, while 17% said it can be staged after partial reforms.
- Around 14% of voters aged under 27 chose to support Jamaat, followed closely by BNP (9%).
- Around 48% of respondents are still undecided on who to vote for. 12% want to vote for BNP, 10.4% for Jamaat.
Despite a declining trend in support for the interim government, around 70% of people remain confident that the upcoming 13th parliamentary national election will be free and fair.
The findings came from the third Pulse Survey, jointly conducted by BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) and Voice for Reform, unveiled at a "Meet the Press" event in the capital's Agargaon area on Monday.
Presenting the results, BIGD Fellow of Practice Syeda Salina Aziz said 5,489 respondents participated in the quick-response telephone survey, which was conducted between 1 July and 20 July, weeks before the tentative election schedule was announced.
Respondents slightly lost confidence in the interim government's performance, rating it 63 in January, down from 68 in October last year and 75 immediately after the political changeover in August 2024.
Yet, 70% of surveyed individuals believe the upcoming election, slated for February next year, will be free and fair. Around 15% believed otherwise, she added.
Mirza M Hasan, a senior fellow of the BIGD who oversaw the survey, said some people have questions over the law-and-order situation, judiciary issues and political unrest. However, they believe the interim government can somehow manage to bring the situation under control for a free, fair and participatory election.
Almost 55% expressed a desire to see the election held within June next year. Among them, 44% expected the election to be held within February.
Although inflation was the major issue of concern for respondents eight months ago, their chief concerns now centre around law and order, political unrest, election and reforms, Salina added.
The most pressing issue concerned reforms related to law and order, with almost 57% identifying it as a concern. The second most-discussed issue was linked to the election and politics, accounting for almost 38%.
Dr Asif Shahan, a professor of development studies at the University of Dhaka and a senior fellow of the BIGD, said the economic situation usually worsens when political instability rises.
In a break from that trend, Shahan said, "For the first time, it has been seen that while people believe the political situation is worsening, they are endorsing that the economic situation is still comprehensively better.
"It might be because prices at kitchen markets are at tolerable levels for the masses," he observed.
Disputing the claim that the general public does not understand reforms, speakers said that it was a narrative established by political leaders and administrators to keep them away from the process.
According to the survey, 51% of the respondents want the election after effective reforms, while 17% said the election can be staged after completing partial fundamental reforms.
Some 14% of respondents supported holding the election without any reforms, while only 13% said they did not know about reforms, and 4% chose not to answer.
Prof Asif Shahan said the statistics showed that 83% of the respondents knew of reforms, debunking the theory that most people have no idea about it.
"The truth is, they are well informed about it. What is happening is they are expressing the feeling with their own words instead of formal language," he said.
BIGD Senior Fellow Hassan added that political leaders and administrators know this truth, but claim otherwise to further their interests by keeping people away from reform activities.
BNP has the edge over Jamaat
According to the survey, 12% of the respondents will cast their vote for BNP, while 10.4% will go for Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami.
However, when asked who would win the most votes in their respective constituencies, 38% of the respondents said the BNP would win the seats. It was only 13% for Jamaat.
However, the survey did not reveal which constituency the respondents belonged to.
Salina said that since it was a quick telephone survey, many were unwilling to express personal details. But when it came to political parties and sharing their opinion on who would win in their constituency, they replied promptly.
Shahan said the statistics are showing why topics like proportional representation keep bubbling up.
Youth leaning towards Jamaat
Surprisingly, most voters aged under 27 choose to support Jamaat (14%), followed closely by BNP (9%). The National Citizen Party (NCP) found support from only 4% although nearly 25% of respondents were aged from 18 to 25.
Hassan found it interesting that Jamaat got the most support from the youth, followed by BNP. He also said the NCP getting 4% support as a newly-formed political party was a huge accomplishment and indicates that the party is developing.
Their popularity is not only bound to urban areas, but has also started to reach rural areas, he said.
Nearly 50% undecided on who to vote for
The survey showed that support for BNP is in a downward trend, while nearly 50% of the respondents are still undecided on who to cast their vote for.
Some 12% of respondents said they wanted to vote for BNP, down from 16.3% in October. The number stood at 10.4% for Jamaat, down from 11.2%.
Around 48% of respondents are still undecided over who to vote for, up from 37.6% in October last year.
Prof Shahan said that all political parties except the NCP lost some support.
He also found it surprising that the ratio of undecided people rose to 48%.
Explaining this, he said many of those people could be BNP supporters who were reluctant to express their choice. Many may also have been supporters of the Awami League, who remain undecided about their next course of action.
However, this paints a worrying scenario for BNP, he added.
If their supporters are unable to express their thoughts, it could hinder the BNP's progress as a party in the near future. Besides, this environment of hesitation might influence undecided voters to go against them, he opined.
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