As Europe gets warmer due to climate change, 'tropical' climate-sensitive illnesses like dengue, chikungunya and West Nile Virus are travelling to the Global North, shifting the geography of infectious diseases, reports France24.
In the last decade alone, the average temperature of Europe has risen by over 2 degrees, with no sign of abatement, creating a hotter and humid atmosphere suitable for viruses, bacteria and other pathogens to thrive.
While wildfires and heat waves are becoming commonplace throughout Europe, Scientists agree that climate change, caused by steadily increasing greenhouse gas emissions, is to be blamed for this new reality.
According to EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), the EU27 was the world's fourth-largest greenhouse gas emitter in 2023, after China, the United States and India.
The EU's share in the world's greenhouse gas emissions fell from 15.2% in 1990 to 6.0% in 2023.
From East to West
Dengue is one of the fastest-growing infectious diseases in Europe. 304 cases were reported in Europe in 2024 alone, compared to 275 cases recorded in the previous 15 years combined.
In 2006, France officially declared dengue a notifiable disease. In 2022, its presence was detected in most of the French mainland administrative departments.
'There is a northward, temporal shift because the current climate is more suitable for pathogens. Disease season is longer – ticks, for example, are now active all year round in many places," says Dr Aleksandra Kazmierczak, an expert on the relationship between climate change and human health at the European Environment Agency (EEA). The climatic conditions have made Europe more suitable for vector-borne (pathogens) and waterborne diseases, she explained.
Asian tiger mosquito, or Aedes albopictus, with its distinctive black and white stripes, is the transmitter of dengue. The mosquito is capable of transmitting Zika and chikungunya as well.
Until the late 90s, Europe only experienced a handful of diseases carried by the tiger mosquito per year. Most were stand-alone cases brought home by travellers from South East Asia – Aedes albopictus's native home. But with increased travel and globalisation, the insect's journeys westward increased.
The numbers have jumped so dramatically that scientists now believe that the diseases carried by Aedes will become endemic in Europe. Some researchers even say that the number of dengue and chikungunya outbreaks could increase five-fold by 2060 compared to current rates.
Unfortunately, insect-transmitted diseases are just one side of the equation; climate change could also increase the occurrence of waterborne diseases from both sweet and saline water.
In recent years, Europe has experienced the devastating impact of extended periods of rain and floods, which wreak havoc on water treatment and distribution systems. Moreover, as permafrost melts, decreasing salinity in sea water, it can unleash dormant pathogens, which can be transmitted through seafood, warns Kazmierczak.
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