South Korea's population could plummet to just 15 percent of its current level by 2125 if the nation's ongoing demographic decline continues unabated, according to a private think tank in Seoul on Wednesday.
In its latest long-term forecast, the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future said South Korea's population could drop to 7.53 million by 2125 – a sharp fall from the current 51.68 million – in a worst-case scenario, the South Korean Herald reports.
This would be even less than the current population of the city of Seoul alone, which is over 9.3 million.
The used a cohort component method to project Korea's demographic trends over the next century.
This internationally recognized technique estimates future populations by incorporating factors such as birth rates, mortality rates and immigration patterns.
Even under the most optimistic projection, the population would shrink to 15.73 million, or less than one-third of its current size.
The median projection puts the 2125 population at 11.15 million.
The report also highlights the rapidly accelerating pace of population decline.
In the median scenario, the population would fall by 30 percent by 2075, and then by more than half over the subsequent 50 years.
This decline is not only due to falling birth rates but also a compounding effect: With fewer people in each successive generation, the pool of potential parents shrinks, further accelerating the decrease.
South Korea's demographic pyramid, once shaped like a "stingray" with a broad base of younger people, is forecast to morph into a "cobra" shape by 2125, with narrowing bands across all age groups and the population heavily skewed toward older groups.
The aging crisis is expected to deepen as well.
In 75 years, the worst forecast is that for every 100 people of working age — defined as 15 to 64 years old — there will be 140 seniors aged 65 or older.
Currently, 100 working-age individuals support around 30 seniors.
The stark projections underscore the urgent demographic challenge South Korea faces as it grapples with one of the world's lowest birth rates and fastest-aging populations.
As of 2024, South Korea's total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime — has ticked up slightly to 0.75, but it remains well below the replacement level of 2.1.
Comments