Russia's recent recognition of the Taliban government, Trump's repeated interest in purchasing Greenland, and the Myanmar Junta's support from both China and Russia, despite being under UN sanctions, demonstrate the superpowers' interest in rare minerals and the emerging green energy business.
The connection with green energy may not seem obvious at first glance. However, they share a common underlying factor: all three regions, Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Greenland, are rich in rare earth elements such as lithium, cobalt, and copper, which are crucial for artificial intelligence and renewable energy, and all of which have become essential in modern life.
China's dominance and rising strategic concerns
According to the US Geological Survey's 2024 report, China dominates global mineral processing, controlling approximately 90% of rare earth refining, 60% of lithium refining, and roughly 70% of cobalt refining. China's dominance concerns the US, especially in considering China's continued threat to invade Taiwan under its one-China policy.
It is noteworthy that Taiwan produces more than 60% of semiconductors and approximately 90 % of the most advanced chips, according to the Global Taiwan Institute.
Meanwhile, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, different countries and international organisations have imposed enormous and evolving sanctions on its finance, energy, defence, and trade sectors. Hence, Russia is trying to secure its access to critical minerals for its industrial and defence needs.
Afghanistan at the centre of a global mineral power shift
Afghanistan was once known as the "graveyard of empires", but it is now repositioning itself as the "Saudi Arabia of lithium" after the US Geological Survey determined that it had a massive amount of undiscovered minerals, including lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earths, worth approximately $1-3 trillion.
Since the Taliban's return in 2021, the West has maintained its ties mostly through countries such as Qatar, while China has shown interest in mining agreements. Russia has leaped good hope by recognising the regime.
Now, the US and its allies fear losing access to Afghanistan's mineral wealth, as noted in a 2024 Council on Foreign Relations brief.
While Afghanistan's resource potential is huge, the human and environmental consequences are significant. The UN Environment Programme warned in 2023 that unrestrained industrial mining might damage Afghanistan's delicate mountain ecosystems.
In 2024, Human Rights Watch opposed developing mineral deals with the Taliban, noting ongoing persecution and gender discrimination.
Parallel cases: Greenland and Myanmar
While Afghanistan appears to be the most promising of the three, Greenland is making its way to the Arctic, creating a "polar silk road". US President Donald Trump has continually expressed his intention to take over Greenland for "national security purposes."
The question of why a territory with only 56,000 people matters boils down to geography.
The possible reason is that Greenland has huge amounts of essential minerals such as rare earth elements, uranium, nickel, and lithium, making it an important player in the global quest for green and defence technology.
Myanmar, a multiethnic Southeast Asian country, has been in a civil war since the military coup in 2021. Despite facing several international sanctions, states such as China and Russia continue to back the junta regime.
The likely reason is that, according to a 2022 Centre for Strategic and International Studies assessment, Myanmar supplies about half of global rare earth materials, primarily from the Kachin region, which draws attention from the rest of the globe, making it a "mental battleground."
While China holds substantial power through investments and ties with the junta, Russia has expressed interest in Myanmar's minerals as a way to bypass Western sanctions.
Is renewable energy repeating the mistakes of fossil fuels?
International watchdogs such as Human Rights Watch and Greenpeace repeatedly warn about the possible outcomes. As the global economy is shifting from fossil fuels to green energies, the demand for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and other rare earth minerals is also rising. These elements are essential for a solar panel to recharge batteries. And, it seems much like its predecessors, such as coal, oil, and gas from the last century, these minerals are also going to be at the centre of geopolitics in the upcoming days.
This raises a troubling question: in seeking a solution to the climate crisis, are the superpowers repeating the same mistake by recreating that very system of inequality, environmental degradation, and socio-political conflicts? Without proper ethical safeguards and sustainable practice, the green transition risks a new resource curse rather than a path to resilience.
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