Russia became the first country to officially recognise the Taliban regime since they came to power in Afghanistan on 15 August 2021.
It welcomed Taliban-appointed representatives and withdrew the Taliban from its terrorist list, clearing the way for formal relations.
"We believe that the act of official recognition of the government of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will give impetus to the development of productive bilateral cooperation between our countries in various fields," said the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement on 3 July.
Russia's decision reflects a major shift in regional politics, based on security concerns and geopolitical interests – it's also a decision that is being closely followed by Washington.
Russia has its reasons for cosying up to the Taliban, but it's also a break from a difficult history. For around ten years, beginning in 1979, the then Soviet Union led an invasion of Afghanistan, where they fought the Mujahideens, many of whom would go on to identify with the Taliban.
Now, the contexts for both are different.
Russia's 2016 Foreign Policy Concept identifies the ongoing instability in Afghanistan – following the withdrawal of most international forces – as a significant security threat, not only to Russia but also to other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Similarly, Russia's 2021 National Security Strategy points to Afghanistan as a potential source of international terrorism and extremism, all of which could endanger Central Asia and Russia.
The latest decision comes amid concerns about ISIS-K, the Islamic State's Afghan branch, which Russia blames for the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow that left over 150 people dead.
By engaging with the Taliban, Russia may hope that it will be able to fight this common rival while preventing Afghanistan from becoming an epicentre for extremism that threatens Central Asia and Russian territories.
Beyond security, Russia hopes to increase its influence after the US and other Western forces have withdrawn.
Since 2021, Moscow has strengthened relations with the Taliban through business meetings and silent diplomacy.
This opens the path for trade, infrastructure, and resource projects.
Russia's recognition of the Taliban could put it ahead of China, which interacts with the Taliban but has not completely recognised them.
Taliban had thus far been dealing with the West through Qatar, but Russia's move could negate that need for the Afghan rulers as they have been recognised by a superpower.
Afghanistan's historical context
Afghanistan has long been seen as a geopolitical hotspot. It was at the centre of the "Great Game," a conflict between the British and Russian Empires over Central Asia in the nineteenth century.
According to historians such as Steve Coll, the invasion of the USSR in 1979 to support its communist ally in Afghanistan caused a decade-long war that led to massive civilian damage and eventually weakened the USSR.
The United States, through the CIA's Operation Cyclone, provided billions of dollars in financing weapons (such as Stinger missiles), and training to Afghan mujahideen fighters, mostly through Pakistan's ISI.
As stated by Ahmed Rashid, upon the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, the United States was mainly uninterested, leaving Afghanistan in chaos.
The Taliban came up in the mid-1990s, and several former US-backed fighters eventually joined extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda.
While the United States did not actively arm the Taliban, previous support for the mujahideen established the way for the creation of both the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
The US-led invasion after 9/11 forced the Taliban out, but they returned in 2021 swiftly following a farcical Western withdrawal.
Pragmatic strategy
According to the International Crisis Group, Russia's recognition of the Taliban is driven by practical considerations rather than ideology.
The Kremlin aims to protect its southern borders, wipe out terrorism, and establish itself as an important factor in Afghanistan's future, filling the gap left by the United States and NATO.
While China and Pakistan engage the Taliban without formal recognition, Russia's bold step may lead others to reconsider their strategy.
However, the Taliban's record of oppression and human rights violations, particularly against women and minorities, makes global acceptance difficult.
A risky move?
Russia's decision seems to be a calculated risk to restore stability, expand its authority, and gain ground in its perennial rivalry with the US. It's still uncertain whether this will result in peace or even more chaos.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Kabir Taneja, a deputy director at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, said Russia's recognition is expected to be followed by others.
"Afghanistan's neighbouring countries don't necessarily have much of an option but to engage with the Taliban for both strategic and security purposes," he said.
Other countries which could follow suit after Russia's recognition of the Taliban include some countries in Central Asia, as well as China.
"Russia's recognition of the Taliban is a geopolitical play," Taneja said.
"It solidifies Moscow's position in Kabul, but more importantly, gives the Taliban itself a big win. For the Taliban, international recognition has been a core aim for their outreach regionally and beyond."
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