Bangladesh is already experiencing its most devastating climate impacts through worsening riverine floods, a crisis projected to intensify in coming decades, according to the Columbia Climate School's Climate Finance Vulnerability Index.
In districts along the coast, the risk of floods and earthquakes is the highest. Risks of tsunami and tropical cyclones are also high, it says.
A large number of people are particularly vulnerable as 8.4% in coastal areas live at most 5 metres above the sea level.
Referring to United Nations data, the index says, political instability diverts resources from climate action, damages vital infrastructure, causes displacement, increases environmental stress, and weakens regulatory institutions.
On a scale of 0 to 10, with higher numbers indicating more exposure to climate-induced hazards, Bangladesh's risk of river floods is 9.9. The other serious risks are earthquake 8.9, coastal flood 8.9, tsunami 8.1, and tropical cyclone 7.9.
The country faces the least risk from droughts at 2.4.
Taking into account these and other risks, the index published early this month presents projected ratings for 2050 and 2080 under both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
Bangladesh's climate risk score is 69.2 and financial risk is 54.9 out of 100 in 2050 under the pessimistic scenario.
When climate and financial risks are combined, the country scores 62, ranking it 136th out of 188. Even in the optimistic scenario, the ranking is no higher than 130th.
The index also features a graphic that places countries into 10 colour-coded categories, ranging from green at best to red at worst. Bangladesh falls in the third-to-last category in both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
The index also mentions that climate change may increase the likelihood of armed conflicts and outbreaks of infectious diseases.
Climate vulnerability can worsen political instability by increasing the scarcity of water and arable land, deepening societal divisions, and fueling migration-driven conflicts, it says.
TOP AND BOTTOM OF THE LIST
At 188th, Guinea-Bissau ranks the worst with a score of 90.9 (financial risk 90.1 and climate risk 91.8). Norway tops it with zero climate risk.
Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden, and the US are also projected to face fewer risks.
In contrast, Eritrea, Palestine, Angola, Burundi, Zambia, and Sudan are likely to face some of the worst climate-related disasters while also remaining financially and politically fragile.
The index has been developed by researchers from Columbia University's National Center for Disaster Preparedness and the Center for Global Energy Policy with support from The Rockefeller Foundation.
According to the website, the index is designed to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate vulnerability for nation states in order to improve the targeting and provision of climate change adaptation financing.
Md Shamsuddoha, chief executive of the Center for Participatory Research and Development (CPRD), says such indices make it easier for vulnerable countries to secure assistance from global climate funds.
But in order to secure climate finance, a country has to demonstrate proper utilisation of funds, prevent corruption, and establish good governance.
In Germanwatch's Global Climate Risk Index 2021, Bangladesh ranks seventh among countries facing the worst long-term climate risks.
Compared to that, the Columbia index projects a less risky future for the country, Shamsuddoha said. However, he added that the index is a prototype and future findings may paint a different picture.
If current conditions persist, Nepal, Pakistan, Myanmar and Sri Lanka will find themselves in the red category by 2050. By position, Nepal will be 141, Myanmar 155, Sri Lanka 135, Pakistan 145, and Bhutan 116.
In contrast, neighbouring India is ranked 26th.
Factionalised elites hamper efforts
The index also features an analysis of governance dimensions and identifies factionalised elites and corruption as the weakest links.
On a scale of 100, factionalised elites score 92.2 and control of corruption 81.7.
Methodology of the index mentions that power struggles among ruling elites severely undermine climate adaptation efforts. Due to a lack of accountability and citizens participation in governance, climate policies often fail to address the needs of the most vulnerable.
CPRD's Shamsuddoha says corruption has been a persistent problem undermining effective use of climate funds.
This may make the country's access to climate funds much more difficult, he says.
"Making the system free from corruption is the only way to gain climate resilience. Simply saying that we are one of the most vulnerable countries will be of no use."
Timely forecasts, coastal embankments, prompt response after disasters, and long-term rehabilitation measures are considered effective, he says. But in Bangladesh, these initiatives often turn out to be wasted opportunities due to poor governance.
Methodology
Researchers considered three spectrums – climate change risk, financial incapability, and governance to determine the climate change risk.
To determine climate change risk two factors are considered:
the primary risk of natural calamities and
Based on how much the climate risk may increase or decrease in the future up to the years 2050 and 2080.
Financial incapacity is assessed using data from the World Bank and the IMF. This evaluation takes into account debt sustainability, financial integration and the development and maturity of domestic economic structures and financial sophistication.
Fariha Nawshin assisted with the preparation of the report.
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