India's cancellation of Bangladesh's exports through several land ports and restrictions on the import of several goods have stoked unease among Bangladeshi business leaders and policymakers. The decisions, reportedly made without substantial bilateral consultation, affect Bangladesh's readymade garment industry, agro-export, and small-scale manufacturing.
As these key industries rely heavily on steady cross-border access, the restrictions would impact the entire economy. Many analysts view the restrictions as part of what they call a broader effort by India to put pressure on Dhaka amid growing diplomatic friction. Critics warn that such tactics would undermine India's long-standing influence on Bangladesh.
TENSE BORDERS
Further complicating the matters are the frequent reports of individuals being pushed into Bangladesh by India's Border Security Force — allegations the Indian authorities refute or downplay. The repatriations without due process have drawn widespread criticism, feeding narratives of Indian disregard for Bangladesh's sovereignty.
These incidents have provoked sharp responses on social media and among civil society members, contributing to the erosion of trust between the two neighbours.
CHINA AND PAKISTAN SEIZE THE DAY
Both China and Pakistan appear to be capitalising on the growing rift. China has deepened its engagement with Bangladesh, pledging greater investment and accelerating Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. Bangladesh's leadership has reaffirmed its interest in regional connectivity through China-led initiatives, signaling a pragmatic pivot toward diversified alliances.
Pakistan, too, has intensified diplomatic overtures. In a departure from past estrangement, Islamabad has sought to rebuild ties with Dhaka through high-level engagements and strategic outreach. These efforts, while nascent, indicate a broader recalibration of South Asia's diplomatic equations.
PUBLIC OPINION AND MEDIA INFLUENCE
On the ground, Bangladeshi public sentiment is also evolving. During the recent India-Pakistan war and associated geopolitical tensions, social media platforms in Bangladesh saw widespread expressions of sympathy towards Pakistan and criticism of India's foreign policies. This reflects not only frustration with current events but also deeper historical grievances regarding water sharing, trade asymmetry, and cultural dominance.
Meanwhile, Indian media portraying Bangladesh as a radicalised or unstable state have only added fuel to the fire. Such portrayals have been widely condemned in Dhaka as misleading and harmful, especially given India's own struggles with communal violence and minority rights.
RISKS OF DIPLOMATIC OVERREACH
India's recent strategy of putting economic pressure and increasing border tensions took on an even greater urgency with the Gopalganj clash that left at least four dead on 17 July.
In response, Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) of India, struck a balanced tone during the July briefing in New Delhi.
He first invoked the democratic values both nations claim to champion: "As a democracy, we would welcome holding of elections… that is inclusive and includes everybody in its fold."
This nod toward fully participatory elections was immediately followed by a measured reference to Gopalganj: "We follow all developments in our region closely and take cognisance of incidents like the recent violence in Gopalganj… and accordingly we take action if required on our side."
After the Gopalganj unrest, the MEA advised Indian citizens in Bangladesh to exercise caution and reportedly heightened vigilance on borders. While the MEA did not issue a formal statement of condemnation, spokesperson Jaiswal emphasised that New Delhi "seeks a positive and constructive partnership" with Bangladesh. Notably, his remarks avoided direct commentary on Bangladesh's internal politics, reflecting a deliberate effort to balance India's regional concerns with non-interference.
Yet, the optics are telling. A heightened Indian response to unrest within Bangladesh feeds growing suspicions about New Delhi's geopolitical influence. To Bangladesh observers, India's dual message of democratic warmth and guarded watchfulness risks coming across as conditional and even coercive.
In returning to democratic values, India reaffirms its soft-power credentials. Whether Dhaka interprets this stance as supportive encouragement or intrusive posturing remains to be seen.
THE ROAD AHEAD
Even as bilateral tensions simmer, Bangladesh's interim government led by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus is opting for a surprisingly familiar yet symbolic diplomatic overture: mango diplomacy. In a gesture reminiscent of warmer times, Dhaka has dispatched crates of Haribhanga mangoes, one of its most prized summer fruits, to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and senior political leaders across New Delhi and Kolkata. On the surface, it may appear as seasonal courtesy, but in the nuanced realm of South Asian diplomacy, such gestures are never just about the fruit.
This revival of Hasina-era mango diplomacy comes at a delicate moment. Trade friction, tightened visa regimes, and growing public discontent have complicated India-Bangladesh relations. Against this backdrop, the mango shipments signal a calibrated soft-power message: a willingness to maintain civility, even amid policy divergence and political uncertainty.
Yunus's government is under no illusion that a fruit basket will reverse deep-rooted grievances. Instead, it pairs symbolic outreach with strategic recalibration, advancing relationships with China and Pakistan while softening posture toward India. The Gopalganj crackdown and India's public alert highlight the volatility of the moment.
For New Delhi, the message is subtle but unmistakable: the channels of communication remain open. Whether goodwill gestures like mango diplomacy can open space for meaningful diplomacy depends on both nations' willingness to address thorny bilateral issues: water-sharing, border protocols, and political unrest.
In a region where rhetoric often grows sharp and unforgiving, a ripe mango sent at the right moment can serve as a reminder that diplomacy often begins with something as simple as shared sweetness.
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